Ivy EdD

I keep checking the data every day and hoping that our recent trend of increasing cases is slowing. Unfortunately, the epi curves in Northeast Tennessee look less like curves and more like straight vertical lines at this point. From July 1 to July 18 the region increased by a total of 858 COVID-19 cases .  Active cases increased by 608 during this time.  Yesterday, Sullivan County experienced its largest single-day increase in cases to date (40). Washington County had our largest increase 3 days ago of 28 cases. I've had questions about whether the increase in positive cases is because we are testing more. Unfortunately, our positivity rate (the percentage of total tests that are positive) is also increasing.  Positivity Rates Note: The more local you get, the more difficult the daily rates are to interpret. For example, in Washington County, the days with spikes over 30% very few tests were conducted. On May 20, only 3 tests were reported and 1 was positive. I haven't figured

As I expected, Washington County moved into the "red zone" for school openings yesterday. But what does that mean? If it stays this way, will schools go to only remote? Not necessarily... Johnson City Schools has issued an FAQ which addresses this specifically.  From the FAQ:  Going into “red” or substantial (defined as an average of > 11+new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 Washington County residents over the last 14 days) will not automatically mean that schools shutdown and every student will become a remote learner. Local health departments, school officials, city and county leaders cannot focus only on the number of cases and the case rate alone, but should also consider characteristics across four factors to fully determine community risk. These factors include: - Disease epidemiology: Level of community transmission, number and type of outbreaks, impact of the outbreaks on delivery of healthcare or other critical infrastructure or services, and epidemiology in surroundin

I know we are all anxiously watching the line for the 14 day average of new cases per 100,000 county residents as we come closer to the start of the school year. Today the rates are as follows:  Carter: 8.94 Sullivan: 8.92 Washington: 10.53 !  Nine or more cases tomorrow will officially put Washington County in the Red Zone for school openings. (See my sidebar for school opening plans.)  New Cases Per Day Current Active Cases And for some context, here are the cumulative cases with active: 

I've been working on different ways to visualize data. Below are the active cases in the Northeast Tennessee Regional Health Department counties + Sullivan County. Counties represented include   Carter, Greene, Hancock, Hawkins, Johnson, Sullivan, Unicoi, Washington. New Cases Per Day  Reminder: 14 day average rates are based on 100,000 county residents. 

As of Friday, July 17, Sullivan, Washington, Greene, and Carter counties in Northeast Tennessee will all have mask mandates in place.  Here's a great video about How Masks Work. I encourage you to watch: 

I have been producing and posting graphs related to active and new cases in NETN on my Facebook page. A few people have asked if I have these posted elsewhere. I will use this blog to post updated data and information about COVID-19 in Northeast Tennessee. This data comes directly from the Tennessee Department of Health. Active Cases New Cases per Day The 14 day average rate is based on the average of new cases per day for 14 days per 100,000 county residents. The red, yellow, green colors represent the thresholds identified by local districts for school opening plans.